Sunday, May 04, 2008

Flood - or "Bad Meteorology"

A storm surge associated with a low pressure system hits the north of Scotland, runs down the east coast and hits London.
First things first. It's a drama, it needs a bad guy and in this case it's the Met Office, shown as a bunch of model following incompetents. The only people aware of the danger are private companies, and if you're not attached to the office, you'd probably enjoy it.
Now, a couple of things. The facts as stated in the first sentence are true, large storm surges happen and are one of the things that we monitor VERY closely. The Ops centre (not shown accurately) do have lots of models but they also have satellites and actual reports to look at. They've also got us. All of the outstations would be watching this and all of us would be working on it separately, if we thought the Ops guys were wrong we'd sodding well tell them! The office would issue warnings for what might happen, as has been shown recently - and like I said, east coast surges are a sore point. We're often criticised that we issue too many warnings, but it's better to be warned.
Having said that, sometimes things do go wrong and sometimes forecasts go wrong, but on that scale? For us to miss the possibility by that much is a bit much.
This is the thing I'm not liking about the program - we're shown in a pretty shit light. Apart form that, it's actually not too bad. They point out the 1953 floods when exactly this happened, it was the highest peacetime loss of life in Britain for a very long time.
People don't like to think about storm surges, they're scary, but they are real. You get (roughly speaking) one metre of surge for every 10 mB drop and about one metre of wind wave for every 10 knots of wind, so to get the 50 odd foot you'd need a central low pressure of about 900 mB and winds of about 80 kt. Possible. In fact, statistically, likely - given a long enough time frame. But not this week. In fact we've had two big storms that threatened to do just this within the last two years, one on the west coast and one on the east. In one case the surge hit at low tide and for the other the pressure wasn't as low as could be and went further off shore, allowing the flood defences to work.
It's just how they show the Office that sticks in my craw. Trust me, if I'd seen a storm like that heading for the coast I'd be looking at it HARD. We'd be one of the first groups hit so we'd be signing the clarion call at the top of our voices!
By the way, as with pretty much all British disaster films, they get COBRA wrong. It is the emergency group but it actually refers to Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. It's a room they use; or at least was originally. I may put in more as the film progresses, depends on how annoyed I am.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I watched the first little bit of this, and celebrated wildly as i watched London disappearing beneath a tide of water - whopee!
Then i got more and more pissed off as thier science degenerated into stuff that A-level students would know is wrong.....hubby really enjoyed it, and has given up hope of ever watching a film with me where i dont get all shirty about the fact that 'it doenst work like that!'. Poor boy. Shouldnt have married a scientist then, should he?!

so anyway, to conclude, i heartily agree with you!

Pamela